Markham, ON (Blog Headquarters) - Happy birthday to my blog! I remembered exactly one year ago, on November 6, 2007, this blog official launched! The blog was launched with its very first post, about the first snowflake in the Greater Toronto Area.

This year, it's all different. Last year, I had frequent posts on the blog. I almost post every day. This year... ummm... more like every month. I apologize for the delay, but hope you can still tune into my blog, and I'll try to keep this up-to-dated.

This year, all is different. Instead of having the first snowflake, the Greater Toronto Area have already got its first taste of winter back on October 21, 2008. According to my recordings, the first snowflake fell at 2:02 PM.

A warm-up has been in place across much of Southern Ontario after the warm front has passed through the area on Monday, which provided some brief showers in Southwestern Ontario, while some patchy freezing rain up near the Ottawa - Gatineau area.

The warm-up is caused by a southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The surge of summer air flowed into Southern Ontario, bumping up the temperature in Toronto to as high as 21 C yesterday. It was at least 12 C above seasonal, considering we're into the first week of November. This pocket of air had previously affected in Western Canada, bumping temperature into mid-teens. The pocket of air is certainly moving east, as Maritimes Canada start to feel the effect of the warm pocket of air.

Good things have to come to an end. A dip in the jet stream in Western Canada is allowing arctic air to invade. The boundary of this bone chilling arctic air and this warm summer air is currently located just west of Thunder Bay, Ontario. The interaction of the two pockets of air also created a low pressure system. On the back side of the system, cold arctic air fills in for the warm air, and as a result, Winnipeg only has a high of 2 C today, as contrast to yesterday's high in the mid-teens. Winnipeg saw some brief periods of freezing rain.

The cold front that brought icy weather to Manitoba is now moving east. Say good-bye to this warm air, Ontarians, for as far as I can see, this warm air will not come back again until at least the January Thaw. The cold front is going to affect the Windsor area during early afternoon, and into the Golden Horseshoe by evening rush hour, and into Ottawa by midnight. With the cold front, areas across Southern Ontario can expect brief periods of showers, with localized and isolated non-severe thunderstorms.

Follow by the cold front, will be chilly northwesterly winds. The wind would not very strong, but capable of dropping temperatures in the GTA to a daily high of only 5 C, while significantly north and east of the city.

On Sunday, the GFS shows a potential system making its way up north in the eastern seaboard may bring precipitation to areas near Lake Ontario. The precipitation can easily be snow, rain, or mixed precipitation, depending on the temperature. The temperature on Sunday for the Greater Toronto Area is forecasted to peak at 4 C, a good temperature for mix precipitation. However, we will need to investigate further to see if wet snow really falls on that day. Personally, I think there is a higher chance of snow off in the north eastern shores of Lake Ontario, while significantly less on the southeastern shores.

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