Markham, ON (Blog Headquarters) - Happy birthday to my blog! I remembered exactly one year ago, on November 6, 2007, this blog official launched! The blog was launched with its very first post, about the first snowflake in the Greater Toronto Area.
This year, it's all different. Last year, I had frequent posts on the blog. I almost post every day. This year... ummm... more like every month. I apologize for the delay, but hope you can still tune into my blog, and I'll try to keep this up-to-dated.
This year, all is different. Instead of having the first snowflake, the Greater Toronto Area have already got its first taste of winter back on October 21, 2008. According to my recordings, the first snowflake fell at 2:02 PM.
A warm-up has been in place across much of Southern Ontario after the warm front has passed through the area on Monday, which provided some brief showers in Southwestern Ontario, while some patchy freezing rain up near the Ottawa - Gatineau area.
The warm-up is caused by a southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The surge of summer air flowed into Southern Ontario, bumping up the temperature in Toronto to as high as 21 C yesterday. It was at least 12 C above seasonal, considering we're into the first week of November. This pocket of air had previously affected in Western Canada, bumping temperature into mid-teens. The pocket of air is certainly moving east, as Maritimes Canada start to feel the effect of the warm pocket of air.
Good things have to come to an end. A dip in the jet stream in Western Canada is allowing arctic air to invade. The boundary of this bone chilling arctic air and this warm summer air is currently located just west of Thunder Bay, Ontario. The interaction of the two pockets of air also created a low pressure system. On the back side of the system, cold arctic air fills in for the warm air, and as a result, Winnipeg only has a high of 2 C today, as contrast to yesterday's high in the mid-teens. Winnipeg saw some brief periods of freezing rain.
The cold front that brought icy weather to Manitoba is now moving east. Say good-bye to this warm air, Ontarians, for as far as I can see, this warm air will not come back again until at least the January Thaw. The cold front is going to affect the Windsor area during early afternoon, and into the Golden Horseshoe by evening rush hour, and into Ottawa by midnight. With the cold front, areas across Southern Ontario can expect brief periods of showers, with localized and isolated non-severe thunderstorms.
Follow by the cold front, will be chilly northwesterly winds. The wind would not very strong, but capable of dropping temperatures in the GTA to a daily high of only 5 C, while significantly north and east of the city.
On Sunday, the GFS shows a potential system making its way up north in the eastern seaboard may bring precipitation to areas near Lake Ontario. The precipitation can easily be snow, rain, or mixed precipitation, depending on the temperature. The temperature on Sunday for the Greater Toronto Area is forecasted to peak at 4 C, a good temperature for mix precipitation. However, we will need to investigate further to see if wet snow really falls on that day. Personally, I think there is a higher chance of snow off in the north eastern shores of Lake Ontario, while significantly less on the southeastern shores.
Ontario - We're already into 2 weeks of fall, and Northern Ontario is in risk of seeing SNOWFALL later tonight. A low pressure system moving towards Quebec as of September 30 is pulling cold air from the Arctic. This cool air is descending down into Northern Ontario (and into Southern Ontario as well), and much of Ontario can expect a strong northwesterly winds.
This cool air is affecting the daily temperature highs across Ontario in the next 5 days or so. While Windsor is expecting the coolest daily high on this Sunday at only 15 C, towns as north as Timmins are expecting single digits, and at temperature as low as 1 C.
Cooler air, and the "follow-up" precipitation of the low pressure system will both affect Northern Ontario, and this is the perfect combination. Tonight, while temperature in Timmins will drop to as low as -2 C, and the "follow-up precipitation" will fall as snow. We're not expecting a major accumulation, but about 1 - 3 cm across much of Northeastern Ontario, while none to 1 cm in Northwestern Ontario.
This morning, according to RADAR maps, there were freezing rain falling along the northern shores of Lake Superior. Temperature this morning fell close to 0. The temperature (both daily highs and lows) will only continue to fall across Ontario, and will not be expected to rise until at least next Tuesday.
The cold air also affects Southern Ontario. Towns like Stratford can see temperatures around 0 C overnight during this weekend. Around the Golden Horseshoe, however, overnight low temperature will hover around 3 - 5 C for the most parts.
Southern Ontario - Almost September, and most students, like me, know what that means. Back to school time, and back to blogging time for me. I apologize for not "forewarning" my readers that I would be taking a break during the summer.
The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a major concern to all North Americans, as usual, during the summer. We have already gone through seven storms. More recent ones including Tropical Storm Fay (at peak intensity), and the newly-formed Hurricane Gustav.
Tropical Storm Fay, in particular, remained stationery in Florida for several days, dumping several feet of rainfall to the locale. This storm has now moved inland, along the Appalachian, and will be reaching Southern Ontario tomorrow afternoon. Currently, showing in the Radar Maps, it's centre is in the Carolinas, and steadily moving up north-east wards. Thicker clouds from Fay, and the trough have already moved into Southern Ontario, and moderate rainfall have already reach as north as Pelee Island, Ontario. To quite a contrast of the forecasting models, I think the Greater Toronto Area will see the first showers from the remnants of Fay early tomorrow morning, while in mid-afternoon for Eastern Ontario, and even later for the Ottawa-Gatineau Area. One point notable to mention, Fay had threatened parts of Southern US with Torando watches and Tornado warnings. However, I think that is unlikely to happen within the borders of Canada, as the system had weakened significantly as it progressed inlands. The winds have diminished, and the pressure has risen quite a bit.
The system will make its way inland towards parts of Quebec and the Maritimes.
I will be posting information about Hurricane Gustav (now a Tropical Storm, due to the mountains in Haiti), and about Invest 95L (which might become Tropical Storm Hanna tomorrow, as the system becomes more organized. The system only needs to gain 9 more
mph of wind speed to qualify as a tropical storm). Stay tuned!
Southern Ontario - First of all, I would like to apologize for not been promptly updating my blog and the GTA weather centre. Life has been very for me these days. I had exams, summatives, and a forecasting contest. So please forgive me for not updating my blog.
The thing with Tuen Ng festival that I mentioned on CWC (Canadian Weather Centre) really works. There is a Chinese proverb, "After the May Festival (Tuen Ng Festival is in May of the Chinese Calendar), you can safely store away your winter clothes". This year's Tuen Ng festival happened to be on June 9, 2008, and already the daily high of that day was into the low 30s, with humidex even higher.
Southern Ontarians have certainly enjoyed a 4 day long heat length. In those 4 days, average temperature of the city stayed around 25 C, with the coolest day being on Saturday. However, all 4 days had daily high temperature above 30 C, with humidex values of 40 C or higher. As a result, heat alert (and extreme heat alert for Monday), humidex advisory, and smog advisory had been issued for all 4 days. Record breaking temperatures are all across the province. London and Winsor respectively broke their temperature record, as a result of this warm surge of air from the Texas area. The low pressure originated from the Texas area brought the local, hot and unstable air mass with it, and invaded Southern Ontario. This air mass, as we currently speaks, is moving into Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Canada will experience temperature in the 20s (a slightly cooler value than what Ontario and Quebec experienced, because geographically, the provinces are more northerly, and the Atlantic Ocean also plays a major part in moderating the temperatures).
As a result of all of these heat, there were daytime (convection) thunderstorms. On Sunday and Monday, these thundershowers were a major issue in Southern Ontario. Consequently, severe thunderstorm watch/warning and tornado watch was issued in Southern Ontario throughout Sunday night and Monday night. Heavy downpours were reported, and rain was falling at a rate of 10 mm/hr at some locations across southern Ontario. Numerous funnel clouds were also reported. There was one in a dense residential area of Keele-Finch in Toronto. In some of the northern townships, suspected tornadoes ripped off roofs and torn down trees. Southern Ontario (excluding anywhere south of London) had not have a major tornado since the Tornado in Barrie in 1985. The same thing happened during the overnight hours of Monday / Tuesday. Trees cut off powers in some locations.
Thankfully, the wild, hot weather patterns are over. This morning in the early rush hours about (0700-0800 EDT), a cold front came through much of the Toronto area. The Toronto area did not see much severe weather because of lack of daytime heating when the front came through. All the residents saw were high winds and moderate rain. However, as the front makes its way into Eastern Ontario during the noon hours, the thunderstorms were supported by the daytime heating, and hence a severe thunderstorm watch was issued. No damage reported yet.
Behind the cold front, comes the cooler air from the prairies. The Prairies have been experiencing below normal temperatures. As this air comes into Ontario, the temperature will drastically drop back to seasonal. For the Toronto area, that would be around 23 C, with a nighttime low of 15 C. Finally, we can get some quality sleep without the heat!
Want more heat? Well, sorry to disappoint you, my readers. But the long-term forecast models are not looking good. It seems like we are in for some "Prairie Weather" for next week, with wet weather and temperature in the mid teens. However, that is still far way off, and I will keep you posted on that.
Southcentral Ontario - I haven't been posting a weather blog post for a long time. This is a much anticipated blog entry for my readers, and thank you for checking daily on my blog. I hereby apologize that I had not been updating my blog. This is because I am busy with the Wundercast contest on Wunderground. It is a forecasting contest available Wunderground members.
So, here comes my blog entry! Well, it seems like winter is not losing its grip just quite yet. We are almost into June and there is still a risk of frost in Southcentral Ontario. The main area of concern is Muskoka, Parry Sound, Grey County, and areas in higher grounds, such as Haliburton Highlands. These areas are at high risk of seeing frost developing tonight.
Yesterday, temperature soared up to the mid 20s across Ontario as a result of a push of warm air from the Great Plains of US. Today, however, a return of the arctic air cools everything down. Yesterday night, a cold front sweeps through much of Southwestern Ontario, triggering an issue with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch last night. Much of Southcentral Ontario saw rainfall amounts up to 5 mm. Behind this cold front, is arctic air from Hudson Bay.
For everyone's information, the Hudson Bay is beginning to thaw right now, as the locale is beginning to see above 0 temperatures. In fact, nowadays for daytime high temperatures, it is extremely rare to see daytime highs of negative digits unless you are north of 75 degrees N.
However, this airmass from the Hudson Bay area is cool enough to cool down an area that had previously witnessed mid 20 temperatures, and thus throughout today, we were seeing departing clouds, and high winds. These will be a major factor for tonight's frost.
Most of Central Ontario only hit a high of around low teens for today, and with the overnight hours, temperatures may dip as low as 0 in some locale. The clear skies and dying winds will support the formation of frost, as dew freezes into its solid form. The clear skies allow heat to be lose faster than ever. The GTA can expect temperature at around 2 to 4 C for tonight, and as we speak right now, Markham, ON is already down to 5 C.
To the north, where the temperature is cooler and has an higher elevation, frost might be even more significant.
However, for areas closer to the Great Lakes, for example, the town of Penetanguishene, which is at the shore of Georgian Bay, the risk of frost is lower because the lake is able to "modify" the local temperature. The lakes are warmer than the nighttime lows for tonight.
Inland areas would not be as lucky, and get ready to shelter your plants (ummm... it's kind of late now, but worth a try), as frost kicks in tonight.
Yukon ; Northwest Territories ; Nunavut - First of all, I apologize for not been writing my weather blog since April 23. I had been spending this time in trying to edit my website. Those of you who are interested, can click on the "Back to Home Page" link above.
During this time I had been away from editing my blog, a major weather pattern change happened in the North. Noticeably, the North had significantly warmed up as we enter May, and some parts of the Arctic begins to receive almost 24-hour sunlight.
For areas south of the Arctic Circle, daily temperature highs have been reaching to the positive single digits. For traditionally colder areas (because of the colder Labrador Current flowing past), such as Baffin Island, the local temperature have been reaching as high as 5 C. Wet snow had been falling in the area, and it is forecasted that the local temperature may even reach as high as 11 C by the end of this week.
Towards the west shore of Hudson Bay, cold arctic air had been persistent in the area, and hence the coldest spot of the nation had been in these areas for the past 2 weeks. The locale also reached 0 C in some cases (i.e. Arviat, NU). Note that places such as Boothia Peninsula, Bathurst Inlet, are still way below the freezing mark with temperature around the negative double digits.
As we progress west to Yellowknife and Hay River area, the temperature had been holding steady at around 5 C for the past 2 weeks, when the warm air from Arizona and Texas attacked Alberta and Saskatchewan. The warm air was, at one point, so strong that it pushes the jet stream as north as Yellowknife. However, currently, the jet stream is nowhere near the 60th Parallel. The north has warm temperature solely because of the longer daylight hours.
The Yukon - Alaska Border, the westernmost frontier of Canada, is even warmer. Whitehorse had been reporting temperature in the positive double digits. And like Yellowknife, the reason for this warm up was that the longer daylight hours, invasion of warm air, etc.
Looks like the North is set for summer, but Southern Canada, hmm, not really. Southern Canada's temperature had been lingering in the double digits. Unlike April, Southern Canada's temperature had been holding steady around 13 to 19 C. Whereas in April, Southern Canada's temperature had soared as high as 30 C. One notable example would be Val Marie, Saskatchewan, which hit 29 C. This temperature still remains as the warmest value in Canada for 2008.
National - This blog entry is probably already covered in the news. Wacky weather we're having here across Canada, eh? Canadians have probably heard that it is snowy and frigid cold in the west, while blazing dry and hot in the east. Well, more wacky weather seems to be on the way, a switch of pattern in place! This is in store for next week. I'll explain more later in this entry.
Currently, a warm air mass that moved from the foothills of Alberta and into Eastern Canada stays stagnant in Eastern Canada. Meanwhile, chilly cold arctic air sweeps across the Western Prairies in order to replace the already moved warm air mass.
As of now, the warm air mass continues to advance north and east. The air mass is driven by the cold air from the west. There is currently several boundaries between this heat and the bonechill temperature. Much of Southern Ontario has already experienced the first one. As of 6 PM EDT, the front is pushing towards the Ottawa / St. Lawrence River Valley, scattering a thundershower or two. The front has not much use of all, frankly. The front is only responsible to change the wind direction, while only dropping Toronto's high tomorrow by only 3 C. There will be a stronger front during the weekend. This front will provide possibly heavy thundershowers (not necessarily severe thundershowers). Ahead of this front, warm air (like the Eastern Canadians are experiencing now) will continue to push up north and east. Behind this front is the bone chill cold temperatures from the prairies. This front will be a major weather maker for the weekend, and I will not be surprised if hail is reported. Behind this front, temperature will drop significantly. It is forecasted that for next Tuesday in Toronto, that cold rain will fall with a high of only 2 C. Forecasts also suggest possible wet snow in the suburban areas of Toronto and Muskoka regions. Winter again, Ontarians?
It looks like if this warm pocket of air continues to push north and east, it looks like that areas as north as southern Baffin Island, Iqaluit, Apex, can achieve temperature as high as 5 C. The current forecast models suggest the leading edge of the warm air will reach as far north as Qikiqtarjuaq, and later move into parts of Southern Greenland. This can be some major thawing for some Arctic residents.
Alright, now let me explain the switch in patterns. We already understands the cooling trend for Eastern Canada next week. I'll explain the warming trend for the West. This next warming trend is not going to be very impressive, but enough to bump the temperature in the Prairies up to the high single digits to mid teens. Currently, we are seeing a warm gulf of air near the shores of British Columbia, as well as south of the border near Washington State. These gulfs of air will eventually make way to the Prairies and the temperature will hence be bumped up. For example, temperature of Calgary will reach to 13 C by next Tuesday. Massive snowmelt is entirely possible, so beware of overflowing streams and flooded roadways.
See the pattern switch? While the east is bathing in heat for this Thursday (April 24), the west suffers from the bone chill temperatures. Next week, however, switch in patterns. The east will be suffering from cold rain and wet snow, while the west sees partly cloudy skies and temperature in the mid-teens. Well, I can only conclude with three words, EVERYTHING IS FAIR!
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