Powered by Bravenet Bravenet Blog

Subscribe to Journal

Tag Board

icecloak: pv is strong last few weeks w blocking ridge wont budge
icecloak: nice site by the way!
icecloak: possible storm&gem next week further north into lower lakes, keep an eye on ccm gem gfs pattern change feb 15 southern jet
icecloak: where are ya dude?i'm in pickering tyl
icecloak: nam showing weaaker storm than gfs on feb 4 18z
icecloak: dude update your site or com on over to the lower greatlakes weather center lmao|
Elizabeth Gillespie: your site is not current and is there anything new for the Toronto area as a spotter for my area
Mbah Gendeng: Blogwalking here have a nice day friends
Elizabeth Gillespie: Amazing site as a spotter is there any new storms or news? any hints would helpe out and thanks
Astaga.com Lifestyle on The Net: Blogwalking here friends
margie: Hi there,Just wondering if you or anyone you know can come in to talk to high school students at Brother Andre CHS in markham about weather & climate? can't find your contact info on your website. thanks, margie
E Ma: Hi Nic,You don't update your blog for a period of time. Just want to have an update of the weather in Canada from your blog.
Yi Ma: Dear Nic,I have just read your blog. I laughed as when I read that after the May Festival, the winter clothes can safely be sotred.You like writing blog and I recognize that there are many readers(your fans). I miss Toronto, hope I can be there with the fine weather now.Yi Ma
Yi Ma: Testing.
Bruce: Hello Nick, This new blog shows how You are evolving with regions of your country. You are breaking down the regions well and doing a pretty good job covering particular regions that your countrymen live in and can identify with. Continue to work at it, Nicholas, you have my support and help anytime you need it. Your friend always, BRUCE
Bruce: Hello Nicholas, Just wanted to continue to offer you encouragement with your site and your blogs. This one covers everything and is concise and to the point so the Laymen" can understand it! Good work, as always, Your Friend, Bruce....
yodawx: Hello Nicholas, I thought your thought processes and grasp and description of the 2 arctic air masses was very well thought out. It continues to show your progress in understanding complex weather systems and how they relate to yuor area and country, I'm proud of you as always, my friend, Bruce
wow gold: hello,anybody home?nice journal website!
Mr. Sea: Wow, very smart Nick! Quite a storm too!
yodawx: Hey nick! Yes< I like it! And the part about "your personal insights" lends a proffessional touch to your thoughts that you put out to ppl who visit here. Once again, well written and very informative!! Good warning criteria!
zhoe wynz: hai.. dropping by here... :)
Bits & Pieces: hello..care to exchange link? if so let me know so I can add your link to my blog..tnx
yodawx: Waited for you tonight, I guess it was you when you put "yodastay", right after you signed , everyone else left. I waited a while longer but I guess it was lights out for you, Put a meeage on my wxunderemail or my other webaddress, OK? I will be doing a lot of chores tom but will try to chk the email and stop by. Gym yom night be back about 9PM. Sweet Dreams, Your friend, Yodwx
yodawx: Hi nick, I figured out that was you when you put up "yodastay". I waited and everybody left but you left just after 11PM, gues it was lights out for you.Send me an email on wxunder when you want me on, I'll be busy tom morning but will try to get in, tom night, gym till 9pm then I'll be on, OK buddy, sweet dreams, Goodnight, Your friend, Yoda.
Blog Hoster: Any overall comments about this blog is welcomed here! So post, post, post!

Please type in the four characters shown in the black box.

Thursday, December 24th 2009

10:55:17

A Second Look at the Christmas Storm

Greater Golden Horseshoe - The Texas Low which is projected to be responsible for the messy Christmas weather is well on its way. At 1 AM EST, the Texas Low is sitting in Northeast Texas, making its way up north and east in the next 48 hours. 

I have taken a very close look at the 06 Z GFS run, and have returned to a conclusion pretty much the same as last time. I am thinking that the system will start with a prolonged period of freezing rain (due to the above-zero temperature in the Level 2 layer, or the 850 mB temp., and the sub-zero temperature near the ground, a perfect scenario to set up freezing rain). 

For much of the GTA, Precipitation will start at around 1 to 2 PM on Christmas Day, with freezing rain lasting for three or so hours before switching over to rain. The rain will fall at a rate around 0.3 to 0.5 mm/hr (generally light in nature), before switching back over to brief periods of snow on the backside of the Texas Low. The backside of the low is a concern for the latter part of Boxing Day and the following Sunday. I am expecting about 5 cm to fall on Boxing Day night and Sunday. Lake effect becomes more of a concern for the latter part of Sunday, and early parts of next week for the "traditional snow belt" region. Next week can also be bitterly cold, as foretold by the 850 mB temp, and the 1000-500 mB thickness. It looks like by next Monday night, the 850 mB temp can reach as low as -20 C for much of Southern Ontario, along with a thickness value close to 510. More about this will be posted after Christmas Day.

I cannot just trust my insight, and therefore, the raw data for 06 Z GFS was ran through the simulator yet again to produce an "adjustment" to my insight.

Here's the output of the simulator:

This afternoon: Dense overcast. High -3. Wind east around 12 kph.                                                                                                         
Tonight: Dense overcast. Low -5, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill down to -11. Wind east around 16 kph in the evening, becoming 21 kph after midnight.

Friday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of rain and sleet in the afternoon. High 2. Wind east around 25 kph. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 mm. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected.   
                                                                                                                                                 
Friday night: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of sleet, snow, and rain in the evening, then a chance of a mix of snow and sleet after midnight. Low -2. Wind chill down to -8. Wind east around 22 kph in the evening, becoming west after midnight. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 2 and 5 mm. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected.   

Saturday: Dense overcast. Snow likely, mixed in with rain early. High 1. Wind west around 19 kph. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 2 and 5 mm. Little (if any) snow accumulation expected. 

Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A chance of snow in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low -5. Wind chill down to -8. Wind west around 13 kph. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than 2 mm. Snow accumulation about a cm.                                                                                                                      
Sunday: Cloudy. Patchy light fog in the morning. A chance of snow. High -2. Wind west around 11 kph. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than 2 mm. Snow accumulation less than one cm.   

Sunday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight. Low -7. Wind chill down to -14. Wind west-northwest around 16 kph in the evening, becoming 21 kph after midnight.   

Monday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy. A slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High -6. Wind northwest around 27 kph. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than 2 mm. Little or no snow accumulation expected.  

Monday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy. A chance of snow. Low -10. Wind chill down to -16. Wind northwest around 21 kph in the evening, becoming 16 kph after midnight. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)  mostly around 2 mm. Snow accumulation about 2 cm.   

--------------------------------------------------------

Summary: Generally, for much of the GTA, this will be mainly a rain / mixed precip. event. Combined with my insight and the simulator output, I am expecting around 10 mm of rain and 2 - 4 cm of snow (from Friday to Monday). This will be a very active weekend, in terms of weather, which might cause a messy drive for holiday travel or holiday shopping. 

I will issue a city-by-city forecast later today. So stay tuned to my blog! Please also subscribe to my blog. Thanks.

Merry Christmas to all.
1 Opinions / What do you think?

Monday, December 21st 2009

12:46:01

All Eyes on the Potential Christmas Storm: Preliminary Forecast

Southern Ontario - For all meteorologists and meteorology enthusiasts across Eastern Canada and the United States, all eyes are currently on the developing Christmas storm. Still, it is too early for a city-by-city forecast (a type of forecast that I usually issue before a major storm like this)... as this system is barely developed. The system is expected to "start-up" in the Four Corners in the next 24 hours, and progressively move north and east-ward, eventually heading up to Southern Ontario.

While many are still suggesting heavy precipitation for this system for Southern Ontario, I, on the other hand, am thinking that Southern Ontario will see mostly light precipitation. Currently, it looks as if the low, when it heads up to the Great Lakes region, most of the energy will be transferred to the coastal region (New England / Canadian Maritimes), leaving very little for the Great Lakes. This is, of course, will lead to the development of another major weather story for the Canadian Maritimes, just in time for the end of 2009 to arrive.

According to the 12Z GFS model run, things are looking very grim for a White Christmas this year. This reminds me of last year, when Southern Ontario is suggested to receive 40 cm of snow about 2 weeks before Christmas. All of this did not happen, and we ended up having mixed precipitation for Christmas, if I had not remembered it wrong.

The model run is expecting significant warm air from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes well before any precipitation begins. It looks like the 540 line is pushed well north of most of Southern Ontario before the precipitation begins. Therefore, when precipitation do actual begin ahead parts of the system, around the morning hours of Christmas Day, the precipitation will begin as mixed precipitation. As temperature continue to rise on Christmas Day, the precipitation will switch over to periods of light drizzle and rain. It will not be until into the overnight hours before the precipitation switch back over to periods of light flurries and snow for the rest of Boxing Day, as the cold front pushes through the Great Lakes region. 

I know, it's disappointing that with so much cold air in place over Southern Ontario right now, this would turn out to be a rain event.

This system, for Southern Ontario, as far as I can see it, will mostly be a rain / mixed precipitation event. 

I have put this data and my own insight into the weather simulator, and the outcome results the following (the forecast is only valid for the Greater Toronto Area, you might use it for a reference for the rest of Southern Ontario):

This afternoon: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow. High -3. Wind northwest around 10 kph. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than 2 mm. No snow accumulation expected.    

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Patchy light fog after midnight. Low -13. Wind chill down to -18. Wind northwest around 11 kph.                                                                                                                            
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. High -7. Wind northwest around 15 kph.                                                                                                                                                                      
Tuesday night: Mostly clear in the evening, becoming clear after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. Low -16. Wind chill down to -22. Wind northwest around 12 kph.                                                                                                                                                            
Wednesday: Sunny. Moderate fog in the morning. High -8. Wind north around 13 kph.                        

Wednesday night: Clear in the evening, becoming fair after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. Low -16. Wind chill down to -22. Wind north around 11 kph.                                                                                                                                                                      
Thursday: Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon.  Patchy light fog in the morning. High -4. Wind east around 14 kph.                                                                                                       
Thursday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Low -6, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill down to -11. Wind southeast around 18 kph.                                                                                                                                                 
Friday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of a mix of rain, snow, and sleet in the morning, then a chance of a mix of rain and snow in the afternoon, followed by drizzles late in the afternoon. High 3. Wind  southeast around 20 kph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 mm. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation  expected.                                                                                                                                                                 
Friday night: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low -4. Wind chill down to -9. Wind northwest around 22 kph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation  (liquid equivalent) mostly between 2 and 5 mm. No snow accumulation expected.   

Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow. High -4, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind northwest around 26 kph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 mm. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 cm.                                                                                                                                                                       
Saturday night: Dense overcast. A chance of snow. Low -11. Wind chill down to -20. Wind northwest around 28 kph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.  Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 mm. Snow accumulation about 2 cm.                                                                                                                                                                       
Sunday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow. High -8. Wind southwest around 31 kph. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than 2 mm. No snow accumulation expected.                                                                                                                            
Sunday night: Cloudy. Low -9. Wind chill down to -17. Wind southwest around 30 kph.      

Summary: I think the simulator over-emphasized on the cold air's impact after the system. I highly doubt it will be that cold on Boxing Day (Saturday), with a high of around 0. The chance of precipitation is just what the simulator suggests, as I have no control over that. 

Overall, the system will "dump" (if that's even the right word to use) 3 to 5 cm of snow, about 7 to 10 mm of rain. 

One thing that did not show up in the above forecast is the projected snow cover before and after Christmas. It looks like we WILL have a white Christmas, as 2 cm of snow will continue stick to the ground on Christmas Day, despite the rain / mixed precipitation. Expect around 7 cm of snow on the ground by the end of Boxing Day. 

Sunday might be an interesting day for snowsqualls developments. I'll keep you posted. Please subscribe to the blog. Thanks!

** My next forecast will be based on the 18 Z or 00 Z GFS, which will be released in about 10 hours. Stay tuned!
0 Opinions / What do you think?

Monday, December 14th 2009

21:22:25

Lake Effect Machine - Switching ON... (+ Alberta Bonus)

Edmonton, Alberta - I'm sure all of you has heard that Edmonton has reached -46 C last weekend. At that moment, Edmonton was the coldest place on Earth, though this record was soon broken by a location in Siberia few hours later. -46 C was not the record coldest temperature, however. The coldest ever recorded was actually -48 C.

The wind chill in Edmonton last weekend reached down to -50 C. Such freezing cold temperature and wind chill values led to Environment Canada issuing a Wind Chill Warning to much of Alberta and the prairie provinces. The deep freeze is expected to continue until Thursday, when the next wave of low pressure arrives from British Columbia (the current system that dumped about 10 cm of snow in Vancouver, BC)

Southern Ontario - Anyways, back to the main topic of this post. The aforementioned cold air will descent into much of Ontario, following the system that is dumping misery rain in southern Ontario. Once the system pulls out, the Arctic air floodgates open, and with it, a strong (though not as strong as last week, at about 30 - 35 kph) north-northwest winds will accompany with it. The snowsquall activity should begin Tuesday evening, and continuing through Thursday morning. 

As a Great Laker, one should know that this brings on the snowsqualls. Since this time, the wind direction is angled at north-northwest, bands of snowsqualls may actually reach as far south as the Greater Toronto Area. The north-eastern portion and the north-western portion of the GTA is expected to have more accumulation than in the downtown core. 

With this snowsquall activity, the snowsquall amount will vary, as depicted in my following map. However, rule of thumb, areas in the south-eastern shores of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron may experience as much as 30 cm of snow, locally reaching 40 cm.

Anyhow, the following map (that I spent 2 hours making), summarizes all (of how I view this system):


The brown arrows indicate the general wind directions.

Sorry.. I forgot to make the legend, but here you go:
There are four shades of blue:
The lightest shade: 2 - 5 cm accumulated snow
The second lightest shade (sky blue colour): 5 - 10 cm
The third lightest (blue-purple): 10 - 20 cm
The darkest (Navy blue): 20 + cm 

Here's my forecast. Since I'm running out of time, I'll just forecast for the major cities below:
Sarnia - 5 - 8 cm
Chatham - Trace to 2 cm
London - 4 - 8 cm (My map and my forecast may be slightly underestimated)
St. Thomas - Trace to 4 cm (again, may be underestimated)
St. Mary's - 2 - 4 cm
Stratford - Trace to 4 cm (may be underestimated on the map)
Goderich - 10 to 15 cm
Kincardine - 25 to 30 cm
Owen Sound - 15 to 20 cm
Tobermory - 10 to 18 cm
Meaford - 18 to 22 cm
Collingwood - 22 to 30 cm
Wasaga Beach - 25 to 30+ cm
Midland - 18 to 22 cm (may be slightly overestimated on the map)
Orillia - 8 to 15 cm
Gravenhurst; Bracebridge - Trace to 3 cm
Barrie - 15 to 20 cm
Keswick / Bradford / Georgina / Sutton - 8 to 15 cm
Northern York Region (Newmarket ; Aurora) - 5 to 10 cm
Markham / Pickering / Ajax / Whitby - 2 to 7 cm
Richmond Hill / Vaughan - Trace to 5 cm
Peel Region - None (Mississauga) to 5 cm (Caledon)
North Toronto (North of the 401) - Trace to 4 cm
South Toronto (Downtown) - None to 2 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener / Waterloo) - 3 to 5 cm (may be slightly underestimated on the map)
Cambridge - Trace to 4 cm
Kawartha Lakes / Beaverton - 4 to 8 cm
Grimsby / Lincoln / Welland - Trace to 4 cm
St. Catharines / Niagara Falls - 3 cm to 8 cm
Niagara - on - the - Lake - 6 cm to 12 cm
Fort Erie - Trace to 3 cm 

* Bolded cities indicate the cities that I think would be the hardest hit.

If you have any comments about this forecast, please post it. Thanks!
0 Opinions / What do you think?

Saturday, December 12th 2009

18:40:37

A messy system on the way to the Greater Toronto Area...

Southern Ontario - After a messy winter storm on Wednesday (and messy days of snowsqualls in the snow belt areas, which I must say, was EXTREMELY impressive... Huntsville saw over 60 cm of snow within 24 hours... quite impressive, I must say again)..

Anyhow, there is currently a system tracking its way north. Currently, it is located in the Carolinas, carrying its moisture and of course, some heat from the Gulf of Mexico along with it. The system has brought heavy rain throughout the day for much of Florida and South Carolina. It will reach into Southern Ontario after midnight. 

From the current standpoint, the system will start off as snow for much of southern Ontario (this includes anywhere east and south of Kingston), turning to a mixed precipitation (wet snow, iced pellets), and potentially some light drizzles after the warm front has passed through. Temperatures for the GTA, for now, would be around 2 - 3 C. The precipitation for the system should end by the end of the evening, when temperatures will hold at around the freezing mark for the rest of the night. The snow should accumulate to 3 - 5 cm, that's my personal thought. Though many forecasters and some forecasting models are calling for an upwards to 10 cm. 

Areas north and east of Kingston should expect the system to stay all snow. Upwards to 5 - 10 cm expected for the Montreal area.

On Monday, the cold front will swing through much of Southern Ontario. In front of the front would be some rain showers, slowly turning into mixed precip. and light flurries throughout Ontario by the time evening arrives in Southern Ontario. Behind the front would be frigid arctic air, the same air mass Ontarians have been experiencing for the last several days. Strong (though not quite as strong as the winds on Thursday) northwesterly winds would accompany with the front, and the days afterwards. This will translate to the lake effect machine turning on again. Since this time the winds are shifted to the northwest, the Haliburton areas, Huntsville, Parry Sound, and the western shores of Georgian Bay should not be impacted by this snowsquall activities. What we are concerned right now would be the western shores of Lake Huron, and the southern shores of Georgian Bay. Upwards to 10 cm may be expected for areas such as Collingwood, Owen Sound, Kincardine, etc. More updates on this snowsqualls activity later, after this system has passed through.

The snowsqualls could make its way into the GTA, with upwards to 3 cm. Again, more on this later. Frigid temperature is expected to arrive to the GTA after the storm. Temperature will plummet to a low of negative double digits as a night time low on Wednesday.

As for the current system that we're concerned with, I have not yet to create a map on this system, but currently, I am expecting the first flakes to fall in Windsor (extreme SW Ontario) by around midnight, pushing its way into London by around 2 AM, into the Golden Horseshoe area by around 4 AM, and into eastern Ontario by sunrise.

For areas east and south of Kingston, a general guideline would be around 6 - 9 hours of light snow, followed by mixed precipitation and light rain later in the afternoon. The farther south you are, the less snow period you should expect and therefore more rain.

Hopefully you are satisfied with this long awaited update! I strongly encourage you to subscribe to the blog!
0 Opinions / What do you think?

Saturday, December 12th 2009

18:05:43

Long Time No See!

Southern Ontario - It has been an extremely long period of time, about a year, since I have last updated the blog. The massive homework load and the busy schedule I had for the summer, it was almost impossible to commit to the blog, and therefore, I took a break. No worries now, I'll be back for the blog and continue to keep you up to date with the ever-changing Canadian weather.

Forgot to mention one thing. The Greater Toronto Area has seen its first snowfall, 29 days after my observed normal. I have been observing the first snow event since 2003. The "normal", as defined by myself, turned out to be November 8. This year, we had a late start, starting on December 7, which may or may not be good news for all...

0 Opinions / What do you think?

Monday, December 22nd 2008

23:45:41

Another Winter Storm on its way

Ontario - Yet another winter storm is targeting Ontario. This winter storm, however, will dump some misery rain over the northern shorelines of Lake Erie and Ontario, and possibly some freezing rain. While this might not be a significant impact to having a white Christmas, it is certainly something to look out for during your way to your parties on Christmas Eve.

The system currently is just over the Plains of US right now, providing some flurry activities in through Wisconsin, the Dakotas, et cetera. The system, along with it, is going to bring warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, and it is going to move north, into the arctic air mass. The Arctic air mass currently dominates much of Eastern U.S. and all of Canada. As this system collides with the air mass, a storm forms. 

It looks as if the Arctic Air Mass will retreat further back towards the north as this system approaches. With this retreat, we can see some warm air invading Southern Ontario, and hence changing the snow over to rain and perhaps freezing rain if the temperature permits.

Currently, Southern Ontario will start with heavy snow beginning tomorrow afternoon. Throughout the evening, temperature is going to rise steadily, while heavy snow continues to fall. By the late morning hours, freezing rain and rain may creep into Southern Ontario. By this time, 10 to 15 cm of snow should have already fallen. The rain will continue throughout the afternoon, finally changing back to flurries by evening hours. The flurries can accumulate up to 3 cm.

The preliminary snow - rain line, I'd say right now, can be drawn west from Sarnia, continuing east through London, bending slightly north to Stratford and the Kitchener-Waterloo areas, continuing east through Hamilton, along the Highway 407 corridor through Burlington, Peel Region, and southern York Region, east continuing on the Highway 401 corridor out to Cornwall. North of this line, you can expect heavy snow. Depending on the track of the storm, the line will either shift north or shift south. Hence, with the movement of the line, communities currently denoted as on the snow-rain line right now can experience a final snowfall amount much different than the current forecasted amount.


2 Opinions / What do you think?

Thursday, December 18th 2008

10:28:17

Christmas Present for all - 40 cm of Snow possible by Christmas

Southern Ontario - 7 days 'til Christmas! The big question is, will Southern Ontarians experience a white Christmas? We had unpleasant experiences before with green Christmases, like last year, we had a warm-up right before Christmas Eve, melting majority of the snow, making Christmas - a green Christmas. As far as I recall, I don't think we had a white Christmas in a very long time.

Well good news is here! It looks like by Christmas Day, some parts of Ontario can have as much as 40 cm on the ground, and maybe even more with lake enhancement snow beginning next week. Good opportunities for skiers, but messy driving / commute conditions for drivers / commuters for the rest of the workweek before Christmas. This is the second winter storm in a week. Winter Storm Watch is already issued and in effect for areas south and west of Toronto (including Toronto).

A series of winter storms are making its way into the Southern Ontario area throughout next week. Right now, the most urgent one has just formed back in the Four Corners last night, moving rapidly aiming at Southern Ontario, and subsequently it will make its way into Southern Quebec and into Atlantic Canada.

The storm is forecasted to intensify as it finds its way up to Eastern Canada, and moving very rapidly. Current forecasts suggest by 7AM EST tomorrow morning, places west of London, Ontario will start seeing light flurries and snow. By this time in Windsor, 3 cm may have already accmulated. In the GTA however, snow is not expected to start until at least 8AM.

By 11 AM, heavier bands of snow will move in from the south, and depending on the track (whether the system will move more northerly or more southerly than current suggestion), the GTA can see various amounts of snow. Winds will be at north-easterlies, and with this cold north-easterly strong winds gusting up to 60 km/h, areas such as Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton, and the Niagara Peninsula could see much heavier snow due to lake effect. In other words, lake effect snow will combine with the system snow forming a blizzard like condition. By this time, the GTA will be seeing periods of moderate snow and at times heavy, with occasional blowing snow.

At 1PM, the snow will start in and around the Ottawa Valley, at this time, there might be as much as 5 to 8 cm on the ground for the GTA, and about 12 to 15 cm for Windsor.

Snow for Montréal and possible Trois-Rivière will start by 4 pm. Due to the blocking high to the north, the system cannot penetrate very far north, hence it does not look like Quebec City and the Gaspé Peninsula will see any snow.

The heavier bands of snow for much of Southern Ontario will move out by 7 pm. At 7pm, Southern Ontario can still experience light snow and at times at moderate intensity. Snow for Windsor will be ending by this time with close to 18 cm on the ground.

By 1 AM, the snow will move out all of Canada, but snow is still possible for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and possibly P.E.I.. Lingering snow will continue to fall for some eastern parts of GTA, and Niagara Peninsula. The snow band can stretch as far as to the Ottawa Valley and into Montreal. This can accumulate as much as 2 more additional cm overnight.

Another possible system is coming into Southern Ontario on Sunday, currently forecasting 5 to 15 cm for GTA on Sunday, but the forecast can change as the temperature is 0C for much of GTA. If the temperature goes higher, the precipitation can switch into rain/snow mix which may drastically reduce storm total amount.

Lingering lake effect flurries and brief clippers is in store through Monday and Tuesday, up to 3 cm expected, followed by another system on Christmas Eve, which can dump as much as 10 cm of snow just in time for Christmas.

Some forecasting models are calling for an upwards of 27 cm for Toronto, and 23 cm here in the HQ in Markham, Ontario, but I'm strongly disagreeing it. Here is my snowfall forecast for Friday Morning through Friday Overnight.

Ontario

Essex County (Windsor; La Salle; Tecumseh) - 12 to 18 cm 
Lambton County; Chatham-Kent - 12 to 18 cm
Perth County; Huron County (Stratford) - 14 to 21 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener; Cambridge) - 15 to 22 cm
Middlesex County; London - 18 to 25 cm
Brant County; Oxford County (Brantford) - 15 to 20 cm
Hamilton (Stoney Creek; Dundas; Ancaster) - 18 to 28 cm
Niagara Region; Haldimand County; Norfolk County (St. Catharines; Niagara Falls) - 20 to 25 cm
Halton Region; Peel Region (Burlington; Mississauga) - 12 to 18 cm
Toronto (North York; Etobicoke; Scarborough) - 8 to 18 cm
York Region (Markham; Vaughan; Newmarket) - 8 to 15 cm
Simcoe County (Barrie; Collingwood; Midland) - 5 to 12 cm
Muskoka (Huntsville; Gravenhurst) - 4 to 10 cm
Sudbury (Chelmsford; Nickel Centre) - No Accumulation to 1 cm
North Bay - No Accumulation to 1 cm
Durham Region; Northumberland, Prince Edward, Hastings Counties (Belleville; Oshawa) - 7 to 13 cm
Frontenac, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Counties (Brockville; Kingston; Cornwall) - 2 to 6 cm
Ottawa (Kanata; Nepean; Gluocester) - 2 to 6 cm
Renfrew County; Haliburton - 7 to 17 cm

Peterborough County (Peterborough); Hastings County - 7 to 15 cm

Québec

Vaudreil - Dorion - 4 to 9 cm
Mont Tremblant - 2 to 5 cm
Gatineau (Hull; Chelsea) - 2 to 6 cm
Montréal - 3 to 8 cm
Terrebonne - 2 to 4 cm
Laval - 2 to 5 cm
Trois-Rivières (Cap-de-la-Magdaleine) - 1 to 3 cm 
Shawanigan - Trace to 2 cm
Sherbrooke; Drummondville - 5 to 10 cm
La Ville de Québec (Lévis; Ste-Foy) - No Snowfall

New Brunswick

St. John - No Accumulation to 3 cm

Prince Edward Island

Entire Island (Charlottetown; Summerside; Souris) - Trace to 4 cm

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton (Sydney; North Sydney) - No accmulation to 1 cm 
Glace Bay ; Picton - Trace to 2 cm
Annapolis; Kent - No Snowfall to No Accumulation
Halifax; Dartmouth - Trace to 3 cm
Yarmouth - Trace to 2 cm

0 Opinions / What do you think?