Ontario - Yet another winter storm is targeting Ontario. This winter storm, however, will dump some misery rain over the northern shorelines of Lake Erie and Ontario, and possibly some freezing rain. While this might not be a significant impact to having a white Christmas, it is certainly something to look out for during your way to your parties on Christmas Eve.

Southern Ontario - 7 days 'til Christmas! The big question is, will Southern Ontarians experience a white Christmas? We had unpleasant experiences before with green Christmases, like last year, we had a warm-up right before Christmas Eve, melting majority of the snow, making Christmas - a green Christmas. As far as I recall, I don't think we had a white Christmas in a very long time.

Well good news is here! It looks like by Christmas Day, some parts of Ontario can have as much as 40 cm on the ground, and maybe even more with lake enhancement snow beginning next week. Good opportunities for skiers, but messy driving / commute conditions for drivers / commuters for the rest of the workweek before Christmas. This is the second winter storm in a week. Winter Storm Watch is already issued and in effect for areas south and west of Toronto (including Toronto).

A series of winter storms are making its way into the Southern Ontario area throughout next week. Right now, the most urgent one has just formed back in the Four Corners last night, moving rapidly aiming at Southern Ontario, and subsequently it will make its way into Southern Quebec and into Atlantic Canada.

The storm is forecasted to intensify as it finds its way up to Eastern Canada, and moving very rapidly. Current forecasts suggest by 7AM EST tomorrow morning, places west of London, Ontario will start seeing light flurries and snow. By this time in Windsor, 3 cm may have already accmulated. In the GTA however, snow is not expected to start until at least 8AM.

By 11 AM, heavier bands of snow will move in from the south, and depending on the track (whether the system will move more northerly or more southerly than current suggestion), the GTA can see various amounts of snow. Winds will be at north-easterlies, and with this cold north-easterly strong winds gusting up to 60 km/h, areas such as Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton, and the Niagara Peninsula could see much heavier snow due to lake effect. In other words, lake effect snow will combine with the system snow forming a blizzard like condition. By this time, the GTA will be seeing periods of moderate snow and at times heavy, with occasional blowing snow.

At 1PM, the snow will start in and around the Ottawa Valley, at this time, there might be as much as 5 to 8 cm on the ground for the GTA, and about 12 to 15 cm for Windsor.

Snow for Montréal and possible Trois-Rivière will start by 4 pm. Due to the blocking high to the north, the system cannot penetrate very far north, hence it does not look like Quebec City and the Gaspé Peninsula will see any snow.

The heavier bands of snow for much of Southern Ontario will move out by 7 pm. At 7pm, Southern Ontario can still experience light snow and at times at moderate intensity. Snow for Windsor will be ending by this time with close to 18 cm on the ground.

By 1 AM, the snow will move out all of Canada, but snow is still possible for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and possibly P.E.I.. Lingering snow will continue to fall for some eastern parts of GTA, and Niagara Peninsula. The snow band can stretch as far as to the Ottawa Valley and into Montreal. This can accumulate as much as 2 more additional cm overnight.

Another possible system is coming into Southern Ontario on Sunday, currently forecasting 5 to 15 cm for GTA on Sunday, but the forecast can change as the temperature is 0C for much of GTA. If the temperature goes higher, the precipitation can switch into rain/snow mix which may drastically reduce storm total amount.

Lingering lake effect flurries and brief clippers is in store through Monday and Tuesday, up to 3 cm expected, followed by another system on Christmas Eve, which can dump as much as 10 cm of snow just in time for Christmas.

Some forecasting models are calling for an upwards of 27 cm for Toronto, and 23 cm here in the HQ in Markham, Ontario, but I'm strongly disagreeing it. Here is my snowfall forecast for Friday Morning through Friday Overnight.

Ontario

Essex County (Windsor; La Salle; Tecumseh) - 12 to 18 cm 
Lambton County; Chatham-Kent - 12 to 18 cm
Perth County; Huron County (Stratford) - 14 to 21 cm
Waterloo Region (Kitchener; Cambridge) - 15 to 22 cm
Middlesex County; London - 18 to 25 cm
Brant County; Oxford County (Brantford) - 15 to 20 cm
Hamilton (Stoney Creek; Dundas; Ancaster) - 18 to 28 cm
Niagara Region; Haldimand County; Norfolk County (St. Catharines; Niagara Falls) - 20 to 25 cm
Halton Region; Peel Region (Burlington; Mississauga) - 12 to 18 cm
Toronto (North York; Etobicoke; Scarborough) - 8 to 18 cm
York Region (Markham; Vaughan; Newmarket) - 8 to 15 cm
Simcoe County (Barrie; Collingwood; Midland) - 5 to 12 cm
Muskoka (Huntsville; Gravenhurst) - 4 to 10 cm
Sudbury (Chelmsford; Nickel Centre) - No Accumulation to 1 cm
North Bay - No Accumulation to 1 cm
Durham Region; Northumberland, Prince Edward, Hastings Counties (Belleville; Oshawa) - 7 to 13 cm
Frontenac, Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry Counties (Brockville; Kingston; Cornwall) - 2 to 6 cm
Ottawa (Kanata; Nepean; Gluocester) - 2 to 6 cm
Renfrew County; Haliburton - 7 to 17 cm

Peterborough County (Peterborough); Hastings County - 7 to 15 cm

Québec

Vaudreil - Dorion - 4 to 9 cm
Mont Tremblant - 2 to 5 cm
Gatineau (Hull; Chelsea) - 2 to 6 cm
Montréal - 3 to 8 cm
Terrebonne - 2 to 4 cm
Laval - 2 to 5 cm
Trois-Rivières (Cap-de-la-Magdaleine) - 1 to 3 cm 
Shawanigan - Trace to 2 cm
Sherbrooke; Drummondville - 5 to 10 cm
La Ville de Québec (Lévis; Ste-Foy) - No Snowfall

New Brunswick

St. John - No Accumulation to 3 cm

Prince Edward Island

Entire Island (Charlottetown; Summerside; Souris) - Trace to 4 cm

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton (Sydney; North Sydney) - No accmulation to 1 cm 
Glace Bay ; Picton - Trace to 2 cm
Annapolis; Kent - No Snowfall to No Accumulation
Halifax; Dartmouth - Trace to 3 cm
Yarmouth - Trace to 2 cm

Markham, ON (Blog Headquarters) - Happy birthday to my blog! I remembered exactly one year ago, on November 6, 2007, this blog official launched! The blog was launched with its very first post, about the first snowflake in the Greater Toronto Area.

This year, it's all different. Last year, I had frequent posts on the blog. I almost post every day. This year... ummm... more like every month. I apologize for the delay, but hope you can still tune into my blog, and I'll try to keep this up-to-dated.

This year, all is different. Instead of having the first snowflake, the Greater Toronto Area have already got its first taste of winter back on October 21, 2008. According to my recordings, the first snowflake fell at 2:02 PM.

A warm-up has been in place across much of Southern Ontario after the warm front has passed through the area on Monday, which provided some brief showers in Southwestern Ontario, while some patchy freezing rain up near the Ottawa - Gatineau area.

The warm-up is caused by a southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The surge of summer air flowed into Southern Ontario, bumping up the temperature in Toronto to as high as 21 C yesterday. It was at least 12 C above seasonal, considering we're into the first week of November. This pocket of air had previously affected in Western Canada, bumping temperature into mid-teens. The pocket of air is certainly moving east, as Maritimes Canada start to feel the effect of the warm pocket of air.

Good things have to come to an end. A dip in the jet stream in Western Canada is allowing arctic air to invade. The boundary of this bone chilling arctic air and this warm summer air is currently located just west of Thunder Bay, Ontario. The interaction of the two pockets of air also created a low pressure system. On the back side of the system, cold arctic air fills in for the warm air, and as a result, Winnipeg only has a high of 2 C today, as contrast to yesterday's high in the mid-teens. Winnipeg saw some brief periods of freezing rain.

The cold front that brought icy weather to Manitoba is now moving east. Say good-bye to this warm air, Ontarians, for as far as I can see, this warm air will not come back again until at least the January Thaw. The cold front is going to affect the Windsor area during early afternoon, and into the Golden Horseshoe by evening rush hour, and into Ottawa by midnight. With the cold front, areas across Southern Ontario can expect brief periods of showers, with localized and isolated non-severe thunderstorms.

Follow by the cold front, will be chilly northwesterly winds. The wind would not very strong, but capable of dropping temperatures in the GTA to a daily high of only 5 C, while significantly north and east of the city.

On Sunday, the GFS shows a potential system making its way up north in the eastern seaboard may bring precipitation to areas near Lake Ontario. The precipitation can easily be snow, rain, or mixed precipitation, depending on the temperature. The temperature on Sunday for the Greater Toronto Area is forecasted to peak at 4 C, a good temperature for mix precipitation. However, we will need to investigate further to see if wet snow really falls on that day. Personally, I think there is a higher chance of snow off in the north eastern shores of Lake Ontario, while significantly less on the southeastern shores.

Ontario - We're already into 2 weeks of fall, and Northern Ontario is in risk of seeing SNOWFALL later tonight. A low pressure system moving towards Quebec as of September 30 is pulling cold air from the Arctic. This cool air is descending down into Northern Ontario (and into Southern Ontario as well), and much of Ontario can expect a strong northwesterly winds.

This cool air is affecting the daily temperature highs across Ontario in the next 5 days or so. While Windsor is expecting the coolest daily high on this Sunday at only 15 C, towns as north as Timmins are expecting single digits, and at temperature as low as 1 C.

Cooler air, and the "follow-up" precipitation of the low pressure system will both affect Northern Ontario, and this is the perfect combination. Tonight, while temperature in Timmins will drop to as low as -2 C, and the "follow-up precipitation" will fall as snow. We're not expecting a major accumulation, but about 1 - 3 cm across much of Northeastern Ontario, while none to 1 cm in Northwestern Ontario.

This morning, according to RADAR maps, there were freezing rain falling along the northern shores of Lake Superior. Temperature this morning fell close to 0. The temperature (both daily highs and lows) will only continue to fall across Ontario, and will not be expected to rise until at least next Tuesday.

The cold air also affects Southern Ontario. Towns like Stratford can see temperatures around 0 C overnight during this weekend. Around the Golden Horseshoe, however, overnight low temperature will hover around 3 - 5 C for the most parts.

Southern Ontario - Almost September, and most students, like me, know what that means. Back to school time, and back to blogging time for me. I apologize for not "forewarning" my readers that I would be taking a break during the summer.

The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a major concern to all North Americans, as usual, during the summer. We have already gone through seven storms. More recent ones including Tropical Storm Fay (at peak intensity), and the newly-formed Hurricane Gustav.

Tropical Storm Fay, in particular, remained stationery in Florida for several days, dumping several feet of rainfall to the locale. This storm has now moved inland, along the Appalachian, and will be reaching Southern Ontario tomorrow afternoon. Currently, showing in the Radar Maps, it's centre is in the Carolinas, and steadily moving up north-east wards. Thicker clouds from Fay, and the trough  have already moved into Southern Ontario, and moderate rainfall have already reach as north as Pelee Island, Ontario. To quite a contrast of the forecasting models, I think the Greater Toronto Area will see the first showers from the remnants of Fay early tomorrow morning, while in mid-afternoon for Eastern Ontario, and even later for the Ottawa-Gatineau Area. One point notable to mention, Fay had threatened parts of Southern US with Torando watches and Tornado warnings. However, I think that is unlikely to happen within the borders of Canada, as the system had weakened significantly as it progressed inlands. The winds have diminished, and the pressure has risen quite a bit.

The system will make its way inland towards parts of Quebec and the Maritimes.

I will be posting information about Hurricane Gustav (now a Tropical Storm, due to the mountains in Haiti), and about Invest 95L (which might become Tropical Storm Hanna tomorrow, as the system becomes more organized. The system only needs to gain 9 more mph of wind speed to qualify as a tropical storm). Stay tuned!

 

Southern Ontario - First of all, I would like to apologize for not been promptly updating my blog and the GTA weather centre. Life has been very for me these days. I had exams, summatives, and a forecasting contest. So please forgive me for not updating my blog.

Southcentral Ontario - I haven't been posting a weather blog post for a long time. This is a much anticipated blog entry for my readers, and thank you for checking daily on my blog. I hereby apologize that I had not been updating my blog. This is because I am busy with the Wundercast contest on Wunderground. It is a forecasting contest available Wunderground members.